SEM217: Peter Shepard, MSCI: Second Order Risk

Tuesday, March 7th @ 11:00-12:30 PM (639 Evans Hall)

Second Order Risk

Peter Shepard, MSCI

Managing a portfolio to a risk model can tilt the portfolio toward weaknesses of the model. As a result, the optimized portfolio acquires downside exposure to uncertainty in the model itself, what we call “second order risk.” We propose a risk measure that accounts for this bias. Studies of real portfolios, in asset-by-asset and factor model contexts, demonstrate that second order risk contributes significantly to realized volatility, and that the proposed measure accurately forecasts the out-of-sample behavior of optimized portfolios.