SEM217: Gerald Garvey, BlackRock: Industry Winners and Losers in a Lower-Carbon Economy: A Structural Model

Tuesday, February 28th @ 11:00-12:30 PM (RECORDING)

This paper models a viable low-carbon economy using global Input-Output tables along with emissions data for 54 industries in 57 countries. Some high-emitting industries such as Air Transport and Retailing support a wide range of otherwise low-carbon goods and services and are predicted to fare well. Industries such as Health Care and Banks that appear green based on direct emissions are nonetheless vulnerable due to reliance on high emission sectors such as construction. To test the model, the authors use high historical energy prices to proxy more stringent carbon regulation. Industries that the model classifies as resilient perform well, while industries that are commonly viewed as green significantly underperform in the face of high energy costs.