2008-05: A Multi-Period Equilibrium Pricing Model of Weather Derivatives


The prevalence of commercial activities whose profit and cost are correlated with weather risk makes weather derivatives valuable financial instruments that enable hedging of price or volumetric (quantity) risk in many industries. This paper proposes a multi-period equilibrium pricing model for weather derivative. In our stylized economy representative agents of weather-sensitive industries optimizes their hedging portfolios that drive the supply and demand for weather derivative which are dynamically determined based on a utility indifference pricing framework. At equilibrium the weather derivative market will be cleared and their market price can be obtained. Numerical examples illustrate the equilibrium prices and optimal choices for the weather derivative as function of the correlation between weather indices and demand for the underlying commodity. We also demonstrate the benefit of multiple trading opportunities which allows rebalancing of the hedging portfolio prior to the commodity delivery date, as compared to a single shot framework.

Yongheon Lee
Shmuel S. Oren
Publication date: 
September 6, 2008
Publication type: 
2008 Working Papers