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Farzad Pourbabaee, UC Berkeley: Large Deviations of Factor Models with Regularly-Varying Tails: Asymptotics and Efficient Estimation

April 4 @ 11:00 am - 12:30 pm

Abstract: I analyze the large deviation probability of factor models generated from components with regularly-varying tails, a large subclass of heavy tailed distributions. An efficient sampling method for tail probability estimation of this class is introduced and shown to exponentially outperform the classical Monte-Carlo estimator, in terms of the coverage probability and/or the confidence interval’s length. The obtained theoretical results are applied to financial portfolios, verifying that deviation probability of the return to portfolios of many securities is asymptotically robust against the distributions of asset specific idiosyncratic risks.

Link to paper.

Download the slides from this presentation: Risk-seminar April-2017

Details

Date:
April 4
Time:
11:00 am - 12:30 pm
Event Category:

Venue

639 Evans Hall at UC Berkeley
639 Evans Hall
Berkeley, CA 94720 United States
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